Clinical value of serum vitamin A and basic fibroblast growth factor levels in predicting retinopathy of prematurity / 国际眼科杂志(Guoji Yanke Zazhi)

AIM: To investigate the clinical value of serum vitamin A(Vit A)and basic fibroblast growth factor(bFGF)levels predicting retinopathy of prematurity(ROP).METHODS: Prospective cohort studies. A total of 411 premature or low birth weight infants with gestational age less than 37 wk or birth weight less than 2 500 g who were delivered in Hainan Branch, Shanghai Children's Medical Center Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine from January 2020 to December 2022 were selected as subjects. The Vit A and bFGF levels in peripheral blood were detected at 7 d and 35 d after birth, respectively.RESULTS: A total of 392 premature infants or low birth weight infants completed clinical study, including 51 cases in stage 1-2 ROP group, 23 cases in stage 3-5 ROP group and 318 cases in the group without ROP. At 7 d postnatal, the serum Vit A(0.44±0.17 μmol/L)and bFGF(0.53±0.16 ng/L)levels in stage 1-2 ROP group were lower than those in the group without ROP(0.50±0.12 μmol/L and 0.63±0.15 ng/L; all P<0.05). The serum Vit A(0.34±0.18 μmol/L)and bFGF(0.44±0.18 ng/L)levels in stage 3-5 ROP group were lower than those in the group without ROP(P<0.05). The serum Vit A and bFGF levels in stage 3-5 ROP group were lower than those in stage 1-2 ROP group(P<0.05). At 35d postnatal, the serum Vit A(0.33±0.19 μmol/L)and bFGF(0.39±0.19 ng/L)levels in stage 3-5 ROP group were lower than those in stage 1-2 ROP group(0.43±0.16 μmol/L and 0.48±0.17 ng/L; all P<0.05). According to the ROC curve drawn by serum Vit A, the AUC value was 0.853, the maximum Youden index was 0.68, the best sensitivity was 73%, and the best specificity was 95%. According to the ROC curve drawn by serum bFGF, the AUC value was 0.828, the maximum Youden index was 0.58, the best sensitivity was 90%, and the best specificity was 68%. According to the ROC curve drawn by serum Vit A combined with bFGF, the AUC value was 0.917, the maximum Youden index was 0.70, the best sensitivity was 70%, and the best specificity was 100%.CONCLUSION: Serum Vit A and bFGF levels are sensitive and effective indicators for predicting ROP. If the serum Vit A or bFGF levels are lower in premature infants or low birth weight infants, it may indicate the higher probability of ROP and its pathological stages. In addition, the clinica value of serum Vit A combined with bFGF in the diagnosis of ROP is higher than that of Vit A or bFGF alone, and the misdiagnosis rate is reduced.

Análisis de los factores pronósticos de mortalidad en los pacientes con enfermedad renal crónica en hemodiálisis

Introducción: La enfermedad renal crónica es una de las principales causas de mortalidad en todo el mundo. La estratificación del riesgo a través del análisis de factores pronósticos podría generar un cambio de paradigma. Objetivo: Analizar los factores pronósticos de mortalidad en los pacientes con enfermedad renal crónica en hemodiálisis. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio no experimental, longitudinal de cohorte retrospectivo en los pacientes con enfermedad renal crónica en hemodiálisis en el Hospital General Docente: "Dr. Ernesto Guevara de la Serna" durante el período del 1 de enero de 2017 al 31 de diciembre de 2021. En general, se analizaron los factores pronósticos de mortalidad mediante el análisis multivariado de regresión logística binaria y se determinó el porcentaje correcto de clasificación del modelo de regresión. Resultados: Se analizaron como variables pronosticas de mortalidad la enfermedad cardiovascular [B = 3,831; p = 0,000; Exp (B) = 46,118], Albúmina 17 mmol/L [B = 1,326; p = 0,027; Exp (B) = 3,767], glucemia < 4 mmol/L [B = 1,600; p = 0,015; Exp (B) = 4,955] y ganancia de peso interdialítica excesiva [B = 2,243; p = 0,001; Exp (B) = 9,420]. El porcentaje global de clasificación del modelo de regresión logística binaria fue de 89,5 %. Conclusiones: Se analizó el modelo predictivo de regresión logística que presentó una buena precisión con los factores de pronósticos asociados a la mortalidad en los pacientes en hemodiálisis.

Introduction: Chronic kidney disease is one of the main causes of mortality worldwide. Risk stratification through the analysis of prognostic factors could generate a paradigm shift. Objective: To analyze the prognostic factors of mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease on hemodialysis. Methods: A non-experimental, longitudinal retrospective cohort study was carried out on patients with chronic kidney disease on hemodialysis at Dr. Ernesto Guevara de la Serna General Teaching Hospital from January 2017 to December 31, 2021. The prognostic factors of mortality were analyzed using multivariate binary logistic regression analysis and the correct percentage of classification of the regression model was determined. Results: Prognostic variables of mortality were analyzed, such as cardiovascular disease [B = 3.831; p = 0.000; Exp (B) = 46.118], albumin 17 mmol/L [B = 1.326; p = 0.027; Exp (B) = 3.767], blood glucose < 4 mmol/L [B = 1.600; p = 0.015; Exp (B) = 4.955] and excessive interdialytic weight gain [B = 2.243; p = 0.001; Exp(B) = 9.420]. The overall classification percentage of the binary logistic regression model was 89.5%. Conclusions: The logistic regression predictive model was analyzed, which showed good precision with the prognostic factors associated with mortality in hemodialysis patients.

A Study to Analyse Covid-19 Outbreak Using Multiple Linear Regression: A Supervised Machine Learning Approach

Introduction: Globally, COVID-19 have impacted people's quality of life. Machine learning have recently be-come popular for making predictions because of their precision and adaptability in identifying diseases. This study aims to identify significant predictors for daily active cases and to visualise trends in daily active, posi-tive cases, and immunisations. Material and methods: This paper utilized secondary data from Covid-19 health bulletin of Uttarakhand and multiple linear regression as a part of supervised machine learning is performed to analyse dataset. Results: Multiple Linear Regression model is more accurate in terms of greater score of R2 (=0.90)as com-pared to Linear Regression model with R2=0.88. The daily number of positive, cured, deceased cases are signif-icant predictors for daily active cases (p <0.001). Using time series linear regression approach, cumulative number of active cases is forecasted to be 6695 (95% CI: 6259 - 7131) on 93rd day since 18 Sep 2022, if simi-lar trend continues in upcoming 3 weeks in Uttarakhand. Conclusion: Regression models are useful for forecasting COVID-19 instances, which will help governments and health organisations to address this pandemic in future and establish appropriate policies and recom-mendations for regular prevention.

Epidemiological analysis and prediction of varicella in Liaoning, 2006-2021 / 中国热带医学

@#Abstract: Objective　By collecting and sorting the information of varicella cases reported in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2021, the epidemiological characteristics were analyzed, and the monthly incidence data were predicted, so as to explore the prevention and control strategy of varicella disease in Liaoning Province. Methods　By collecting the characteristic information of varicella cases in Liaoning Province, epidemiological analysis was carried out on the regional, population, and temporal characteristics of varicella incidence. The monthly incidence data of varicella were fitted with Eviews software, seasonal ARIMA model was used for modeling, and models were selected according to SC and AIC. After modeling, the model was used to predict the incidence data in 2022. Results　The incidence rate of varicella in Liaoning Province has increased in recent years. The onset time was "bimodal distribution", with the main peak occurring from November to January of the next year and the secondary peak occurring from May to June. Since 2019, the onset age has shifted backward. From the original 0-<10 age group with the highest incidence rate, it shifted to the 10-<20 age group with the highest incidence rate. From 2006 to 2021, the incidence of varicella mainly concentrated in people aged 0 to <40 years old, and the incidence rate of the population over 40 years old showed a cliff-like decline. The incidence of chickenpox was higher in the central region of Liaoning Province, such as Shenyang, Dalian, Anshan and Panjin, and relatively low in Huludao, Jinzhou, Fuxin and Liaoyang. The distribution of the population was mainly students, followed by kindergartens and scattered children. ARIMA model of monthly incidence data was established by software as ARIMA (1, 0, 1) (1, 1, 1)12. Conclusions　The incidence rate of varicella in Liaoning Province has been rising in recent years. The incidence is obviously seasonal, and the age group of the affected population has moved backward. It is predicted that the incidence will continue to increase in 2022. The prevention and control of varicella should still be the current key work. In order to reduce the population incidence rate, two-dose vaccination strategies should be vigorously promoted the implementation of the, and the inclusion of varicella vaccine in the immunization program should be achieved as soon as possible.

ARIMA model in predicting of COVID-19 epidemic for the Southern Africa region

Background: Coronavirus pandemic, a serious global public health threat, affects the Southern African countries more than any other country on the continent. The region has become the epicenter of the coronavirus with South Africa accounting for the most cases. To cap the deadly effect caused by the pandemic, we apply a statistical modelling approach to investigate and predict COVID-19 incidence. Methods: Using secondary data on the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million for Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) member states from March 5, 2020, to July 15, 2021, we model and forecast the spread of coronavirus in the region. We select the best ARIMA model based on the log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC of the fitted models. Results: The ARIMA (11,1,11) model for the complete data set was finally selected among ARIMA models based upon the parameter test and the Box­Ljung test. The ARIMA (11,1,9) was the best candidate for the training set. A 15-day forecast was also made from the model, which shows a perfect fit with the testing set. Conclusion: The number of new COVID-19 cases per million for the SADC shows a downward trend, but the trend is characterized by peaks from time to time. Tightening up of the preventive measures continuously needs to be adapted in order to eradicate the coronavirus epidemic from the population.

Grey model forecasting analysis of licensed pharmacist staffing in retail pharmacies in western China / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE To predict the development trends of licensed pharmacist staffing in retail pharmacies within the western China and provide reference for the formulation of policies related to licensed pharmacists. METHODS Based on the data of retail pharmacies and licensed pharmacists in the western China from 2016 to 2022， a grey model was constructed to analyze and predict the number development trends of retail pharmacies and licensed pharmacists in the western China from 2023 to 2026. RESULTS Currently， the 1∶1 staffing requirement for licensed pharmacists and retail pharmacies had been met in Shaanxi， Guangxi and Gansu. Based on current trends， Inner Mongolia， Chongqing， Yunnan， and Qinghai were expected to meet the 1∶1 staffing requirement for licensed pharmacists and retail pharmacies between 2023 and 2026. Sichuan and Xinjiang were also expected to meet this requirement in the future. However， there was still a significant gap in Guizhou， Xizang， and Ningxia towards achieving the above goals. CONCLUSIONS There is still a discrepancy between the deployment of licensed pharmacists and the national requirements in certain western provinces. Local authorities should formulate relevant policies according to local circumstances. Regions that have already met or will soon achieve the staffing requirement for licensed pharmacists should continue to enhance the quantity and quality of their licensed pharmacist workforce. In areas where meet this criterion in the short term is not feasible， it is necessary to strengthen the development of the licensed pharmacist workforce， and control the number of new retail pharmacies.

Predicting the Major Organism Species in Tobacco in Cao Bang Province, Vietnam Based on the Weather Conditions

In recent years, some organism species are appearing popularly in the tobacco in Cao Bang province, Vietnam, and caused severe damage to the tobacco yield and quality such as budworm (Helicoverpa assulta Guene), aphid (Myzus persicea Sulzer), and powdery mildew (Erysiphe cichoracearum D.C). To manage them effectively, forecasting and controlling insect pests play an important role in tobacco cultivation. The predictive model was built base on the Skybit, Fuzzy, and Degree-days model to forecast and give suitable control methods for major insect pests in tobacco. This model is run on Excel software and calculated by an IF function for the growth of the organism. Result of the model predicted accurately the tobacco budworm, aphids, and powdery mildew damaging tobacco in Cao Bang in April 2022. Based on the results of prediction, we give proper control methods for each insect pests, preventing the quick growth and development of the organism species in the field, reducing the use of pesticides, and increasing the income of the growers. This model has also applied to forecast other pests in the tobacco in Vietnam. To increase the quality of the prediction, the model will continue to be perfected and completed in the coming years based on the practice field.

Well beyond the 60s? The impact of a pandemic on the growth of the older population / Muito além dos 60? Impacto de uma pandemia na dinâmica de crescimento da população idosa

Contrary to expectations that the first decades of the 21st century would experience an increase in lived time, the 2020s cast doubts on the future of old age. The Brazilian population is expected to increase until 2030, when it will reach its maximum, with a total of approximately 215 million inhabitants. A trend of population decline was already in progress and had already been documented, but the pandemic accelerated this process. This study describes a set of projections for the older Brazilian population. The projections were elaborated using the main components method, whose advantages are the possibility of separately projecting the behavior of the three demographic variables (fertility, mortality, and migrations) and obtaining results disaggregated by sex and age groups. Birth data for 2018, 2019, and 2020 suggest a 3.51 and 5.28% decrease in total births between 2018 and 2019 and 2019 and 2020, respectively. Preliminary data for 2021, which indicate the continuation of this trend between 2020­2021, show a 2.32% reduction in the number of births. The hypotheses raised for the mortality patterns, if proven to be accurate, suggest a life expectancy of 72.8 years for men and 76.2 years for women at the final period of the projection, resulting in gains of 4.6 and 2.0 years, respectively. Despite these gains, the levels obtained in 2019, pre-pandemic, would be reached by the male population only between 2035 and 2040.

Contrariando expectativas de que as primeiras décadas do século XXI seriam um tempo de expansão do tempo vivido, os anos 2020 apontam dúvidas com relação ao futuro da velhice. A população brasileira deverá crescer até 2030, quando se projeta que atingirá o seu máximo, com um total de aproximadamente 215 milhões de habitantes. Uma tendência de redução populacional já era documentada e estava em curso, mas a pandemia acelerou o seu movimento. Este artigo apresenta um conjunto de projeções para a população brasileira e idosa. Para a sua elaboração, utilizamos o método das componentes, cujas vantagens são: (a) projetar, isoladamente, o comportamento de cada uma das três variáveis demográficas ­ fecundidade, mortalidade e migrações ­ e (b) obter resultados desagregados por sexo e grupos de idade. Os dados de nascimentos para 2018, 2019 e 2020 apontam para uma diminuição deste total de 3,51% entre 2018 e 2019 e de 5,28% entre 2019 e 2020. Os dados preliminares de 2021, que apontam para uma continuação dessa tendência entre 2020 e 2021 demonstram redução de 2,32% no número de nascimentos. As hipóteses feitas para os padrões de mortalidade, se verificadas, apontam para uma expectativa de vida de 72,8 e 76,2 anos no final do período da projeção, o que resultaria em ganhos de 4,6 e 2,0 anos, para homens e mulheres, respectivamente. Apesar desses ganhos, os níveis obtidos em 2019, pré-pandemia, seriam alcançados pelos homens entre 2035 e 2040.

Complicaciones en los pacientes quemados

Introducción: La lesión por quemadura es uno de los eventos más traumáticos y devastadores que puede sufrir un ser humano. Este evento térmico produce profundas alteraciones en los mecanismos sistémicos de defensa del huésped. Las complicaciones en grandes quemados comienzan en la fase inmediata de la inflamación producida tras sufrir la agresión térmica. Las complicaciones en los pacientes quemados se han asociado con un mal pronóstico, con una alta morbilidad y mortalidad. Objetivo: Describir las complicaciones en los pacientes quemados. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo, de corte transversal para describir las complicaciones en los pacientes quemados que ingresaron en la sala de Caumatología del Hospital Universitario Manuel Ascunce Domenech de la ciudad Camagüey en el período comprendido desde enero de 2021 hasta febrero de 2022. Se estudiaron 32 pacientes en quienes se tuvieron en cuenta las variables: índice de gravedad, complicaciones generales, las complicaciones hidroelectrolíticas y acido básicas, así el estado al egreso de los pacientes. Resultados: Hubo un predominio de pacientes con complicaciones en aquellos lesionados con insulto térmico severo, presentes en 24 pacientes para un 75 %. La infección de la lesión por quemaduras, la hiperglucemia, la anemia y los estados de deshidratación fueron las complicaciones que mayormente se presentaron en los pacientes estudiados. La totalidad de los fallecidos fueron del grupo de pacientes que presentaron complicaciones, ocho pacientes para un 25 %. Conclusiones: La infección de las quemaduras es la principal complicación del paciente quemado. La mayoría de los pacientes de esta serie egresaron vivos.

Introduction: Burn injury is one of the most traumatic and devastating events that a human being can suffer. This thermal event produces profound alterations in the host's systemic defense mechanisms. Complications in major burns begin in the immediate phase of inflammation produced after suffering thermal aggression. Complications in the burned patients are associated with a bad prognosis with a high morbility and mortality. Objective: To decribe the complications in burned patient. Methods: A descriptive, retrospective, cross-section study was carried out to determine the complications in the burned patients that were admitted in the service of Caumatology, of the Universitary Hospital Manuel Ascunce Domenech in Camagüey city between January, 2021 and February, 2022. 32 patients were studied and the following variables were evaluated: severity rate, general complications, and acid-basic and hydroelectrolytic complications, as well as the state at discharge of the patients. Results: There was a predominance of patients with complications, in those injured persons with thermic harsh insult, present in 24 patients for 75 %. The infection of the injury for burns, the hyperglycemia, the anemia and the states of dehydration were the complications that largely showed up in the studied patients. All of the dead persons belonged to patient's group that had complications, eight patients showed (25 %). Conclusions: The infection of the burns continues to be the main complication of the burned patient. Most of the patients in this series were discharged alive.

The predictive value of time series forecasting model in prehospital emergency medical services demand in Guangzhou / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective:To study the value of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive (AR) models in predicting the daily number of ambulances in prehospital emergency medical services demand in Guangzhou.Methods:Matlab simulation software was used to analyze the emergency dispatching departure records in Guangzhou from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. A time series for the number of ambulances per day was calculated. After identifying the time series prediction model, ARIMA(1,1,1), AR(4) and AR(7) models were obtained. These models were used to predict the number of ambulances per day. ARIMA(1,1,1) model divided the time series into the training set and test set. Prony method was used for parameter calculation, and the demands of number of ambulances of the next few months were forecasted. AR(4) and AR(7) models used uniformity coefficient to forecast the demands of number of ambulances on that very day.Results:ARIMA(1,1,1), AR(4) and AR(7) can effectively predict the number of ambulances per day. The prediction fitting error of ARIMA (1,1,1) decreased with the extension of prediction time. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of forecast results of daily vehicle output of emergency dispatching within two months was less than 6% and the predicted results were almost within the 95% confidence interval. The residual analysis of the model verified that the model was significantly effective.Conclusions:ARIMA model can make a long-term within two months and effective prediction fitting of the daily vehicle output of emergency dispatching, and AR model can make a short-term and effective prediction of the daily vehicle output of emergency dispatching.

Modelación matemática de los casos autóctonos de Covid-19. Municipio Bayamo. Febrero- Agosto 2021

El municipio Bayamo acumuló, 8162 casos positivos autóctonos de febrero a agosto en el año 2021, es el centro de la epidemia en la provincia de COVID-19 provocada por el SARS -CoV-2 determinado por el test de Proteína C Reactiva, representa el53,2 % del total de los casos en ese periodo en Granma, muy diferente a lo ocurrido en el año 2020 en el cual la provincia acumuló solamente 185personas contagiadas en nueve meses, con una tasa de 22.6 la más baja de Cuba. La provincia Granma acumuló 119 fallecidos en agosto/2021 que representa el 62,9 % de todos los muertos desde que comenzó la pandemia hasta agosto, lo que indica la alta incidencia de la epidemia que hay en estos momentos. Para la modelación matemática y el análisis de los casos positivos autóctonos de todos los ocurridos durante los meses de febrero a agosto en el año 2021 en Bayamo se obtuvieron polinomios de grado tres y cuatro que modelan el comportamiento de la epidemia durante los siete meses analizados, así como el de los fallecidos durante el mes de agosto en Granma con un carácter predictivo mayor al 98 % en todos los modelos.

The Bayamo municipality accumulated 8162 autochthonous positive cases from February to August in 2021, it is the center of the epidemic in the province of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 determined by the C-Reactive Protein test, represents the 53.2% of the total cases in that period in Granma, very different from what happened in 2020 in which the province accumulated only 185 infected people in nine months, with a rate of 22.6, the lowest in Cuba. Granma province accumulated 119 deaths in August / 2021, which represents 62.9% of all deaths since the pandemic began until August, which indicates the high incidence of the epidemic that exists at the moment. For the mathematical modeling and analysis of the autochthonous positive cases of all those that occurred during the months of February to August in 2021 in Bayamo, polynomials of degree three and four were obtained that model the behavior of the epidemic during the seven months analyzed. as well as that of the deceased during the month of August in Granma with a predictive character greater than 98% in all models.

O município de Bayamo acumulou 8.162 casos autóctones positivos de fevereiro a agosto de 2021, é o centro da epidemia na província de COVID-19 causada pelo SARS-CoV-2 determinado pelo teste da Proteína C Reativa, representa 53,2% de o total de casos nesse período no Granma, muito diferente do que aconteceu em 2020 em que a província acumulou apenas 185 pessoas infectadas em nove meses, com uma taxa de 22,6, a mais baixa de Cuba. A província do Granma acumulou 119 mortes em agosto / 2021, o que representa 62,9% de todas as mortes desde o início da pandemia até agosto, o que indica a alta incidência da epidemia que existe no momento. Para a modelagem matemática e análise dos casos positivos autóctones de todos os ocorridos durante os meses de fevereiro a agosto de 2021 em Bayamo, foram obtidos polinômios de grau três e quatro que modelam o comportamento da epidemia durante os sete meses analisados. bem como o dos falecidos durante o mês de agosto no Granma com caráter preditivo superior a 98% em todos os modelos.

La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad / Fertility in Rosario City, Argentina: Projections and retro-projections of the global fertility rate and specific fertility rates

Resumen El estudio que da lugar al presente artículo surge a partir de los resultados obtenidos en el marco de un convenio de colaboración firmado por la Dirección General de Estadística de la Municipalidad de Rosario y la Escuela de Estadística de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Estadística de la Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Entre sus objetivos, se plantea el de obtener pronósticos probabilísticos de la fecundidad para la Ciudad de Rosario. Para ello, con base en estadísticas vitales, estimaciones y proyecciones de población se construyen escenarios probables, pasados y futuros, tanto para la tasa global de fecundidad como para las tasas específicas de fecundidad. Los resultados de este estudio, basados en la aplicación de modelos probabilísticos de pronóstico, permiten conocer estructuras y tendencias, pasadas y futuras de la fecundidad, de modo que puedan generarse diagnósticos que sean de utilidad para la evaluación y gestión del sistema de salud o bien para el desarrollo de nuevas políticas públicas. Los resultados indican que Rosario tuvo, tiene y seguirá teniendo un cambio en los patrones de fecundidad más rápido y marcado que el promedio nacional. Si bien este hecho es esperable, en un contexto signado por los avances en la salud pública, que permiten acceder a más y mejor atención en salud reproductiva, la metodología aquí empleada se basa únicamente en la extrapolación de las tendencias, por ello la retroproyección debe ser analizada cuidadosamente. Con posterioridad, en la sección metodológica, se presentan los modelos probabilísticos de pronóstico que se emplean para la obtención de resultados.

Abstract The study that gives rise to this article arises from the results obtained in the framework of a collaboration agreement signed by the Statistical Office of Rosario City and the School of Statistics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Statistics (National University of Rosario). Among its objectives is to obtain probabilistic fertility forecasts for Rosario City. For this, based on vital statistics, estimates and population projections, probable scenarios, past and future, are constructed, both for the global fertility rate and the specific fertility rates. The results of this study, based on the application of probabilistic prognostic models, allow to know structures and trends, past and future, of fertility, so that diagnoses can be generated that are useful for the evaluation and management of the health system or good for the development of new public policies. The results indicate that Rosario had, has and will continue to have a change in fertility patterns faster and more marked than the national average. Although this fact is to be expected in a context marked by advances in public health (which allow access to more and better reproductive health care), the methodology used here is based solely on the extrapolation of trends, therefore, the backprojection must be carefully analyzed.

Factores relacionados con el resultado de los tratamientos endodónticos realizados en una institución universitaria con odontólogos en formación / Factors related to the result of endodontic treatments performed in a university institution with dentists in training / Fatores relacionados ao resultado de tratamentos endodônticos realizados em instituição universitária com dentistas em treinamento

Resumen Introducción y objetivo: el tratamiento endodóntico se realiza para tratar la enfermedad pulpoperiapical y puede tener un porcentaje de éxito de más del 90% en condiciones ideales para su realización. Dentro de los factores que condicionan la práctica clínica, se encuentran la anatomía interna del diente, las habilidades del operador, el conocimiento de la técnica, los instrumentos empleados y el tiempo operatorio. El éxito lo determina la supervivencia y la ausencia de signos clínicos y radiográficos en el seguimiento. Determinar los factores asociados al resultado del tratamiento de endodoncia, realizado por estudiantes de pregrado en odontología de una universidad colombiana. Materiales y métodos: estudio de cohorte retrospectivo con una cohorte expuesta y una no expuesta a la periodontitis apical. Se evaluaron clínica y radiográficamente todos los pacientes cuyo motivo de consulta fue endodoncia durante los años 2013-2014. Resultados: la media de edad de los pacientes fue 51,23 (DE = 14,23) con un mayor porcentaje de participación de mujeres (71,1%). En el diagnóstico inicial se encontró un 26% de dientes con Periodontitis apical. Se encontró asociación entre una mediana mayor de consultas y no presentar Periodontitis apical al final del tratamiento. En los análisis bivariados y multivariados se encontró asociación de la presencia de accidentes y endodoncia suboturada con la presencia de Periodontitis apical al final del tratamiento. Conclusión: seguir protocolos y guía de atención que permitan evitar los accidentes y conservar la adecuada longitud en la conformación y obturación pueden incrementar la frecuencia de éxito en los tratamientos.

Abstract Introduction and objetive: an endodontic treatment is performed to treat pulp-periapical disorders and may have a success rate of over 90% under ideal conditions. Among the factors that need to be considered, knowledge of the internal anatomy of the root, operator skills, selected technique, instruments involved and surgical time are the most important to determine the success of such treatment. Success implies the survival of the tooth in the oral cavity as well as the absence of clinical and radiographic signs and symptoms. The purpose of this work was to determine the factors associated to the success of an endodontic treatment performed by undergraduate dental students in a Colombian university. Materials and methods: a retrospective study with cohorts exposed and unexposed to apical periodontitis was carried out. Patients who consulted for endodontic treatment in 2013-2014 were invited to participate and were assessed both clinically and radiographically. Results: mean age was 51.23 (SD 14.23) years and higher percentage of female participation (71.1%) was observed. At initial diagnosis, 26% of teeth were diagnosed with apical periodontitis. An association between a high consultation mean and absence of apical periodontitis at the end of treatment was found. Bivariate and multivariate analyses showed an association between the presence of procedure accidents and under-filled root canal obturation with the presence of apical periodontitis at the end of treatment. Conclusion: success rate of endodontic treatments may be increased by carefully following protocols and attention guidelines to reduce the possibility of accidents and to keep an adequate length of the canal filling.

Resumo Introdução e objetivo: um tratamento endodôntico é realizado para tratar distúrbios pulpar-periapicais e pode ter uma taxa de sucesso superior a 90% em condições ideais. Entre os fatores que precisam ser considerados, o conhecimento da anatomia interna da raiz, as habilidades do operador, a técnica selecionada, os instrumentos envolvidos e o tempo cirúrgico são os mais importantes para determinar o sucesso desse tratamento. O sucesso implica a sobrevivência do dente na cavidade oral, bem como a ausência de sinais e sintomas clínicos e radiográficos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar os fatores associados ao sucesso de um tratamento endodôntico realizado por estudantes de graduação em odontologia de uma universidade colombiana. Materiais e métodos: estudo retrospectivo com coortes expostas e não expostas à periodontite apical. Os pacientes que consultaram para tratamento endodôntico em 2013-2014 foram convidados a participar e foram avaliados clinicamente e radiograficamente. Resultados: a média de idade foi de 51,23 (DP 14,23) anos e maior percentual de participação feminina (71,1%). No diagnóstico inicial, 26% dos dentes foram diagnosticados com periodontite apical. Foi encontrada associação entre alta média de consulta e ausência de periodontite apical ao final do tratamento. As análises bivariadas e multivariadas mostraram associação entre a presença de acidentes do procedimento e a obturação do canal radicular com preenchimento insuficiente com a presença de periodontite apical ao final do tratamento. Conclusão: a taxa de sucesso dos tratamentos endodônticos pode ser aumentada seguindo-se cuidadosamente os protocolos e diretrizes de atenção para reduzir a possibilidade de acidentes e manter um comprimento adequado do preenchimento do canal.

Matrices ATJ, herramientas para pronosticar la validez de un resultado científico en la Cultura Física / Matrizes ATJ, ferramentas para prever a validade de um resultado científico na Cultura Física / ATJ Matrices, tools for predicting the validity of a scientific result in Physical Culture

RESUMEN Los métodos de pronósticos en la actualidad son utilizados para realizar la estimación de ocurrencia de un resultado esperado, es decir, ofrecen la probabilidad de presentación de una cualidad o proceso, sin embargo, su utilización resulta aún insuficiente en el contexto de la Cultura Física, por lo que aportar un nuevo método y su metodología de aplicación, reviste importancia como un proceso de filtración cualitativo. El objetivo del presente artículo se enmarca en exponer las matrices ATJ como herramientas para el pronóstico de la validez de un resultado científico en la Cultura Física. Para lograrlo, se emplearon métodos, tales como: sondeo de opinión, entrevista no estructurada, analítico-sintético, inductivo-deductivo, análisis de fuentes bibliográficas, sistémico-estructural-funcional, criterio de especialistas y estadístico-matemático. Como resultado preliminar, se logra obtener un arreglo matricial denominado ATJ, donde se declaran cuatro matrices que responden a dimensiones; cada una con sus respectivos indicadores y se brindan escalas valorativas que posibilitan obtener un criterio evaluativo final. El procedimiento que se proporciona al investigador para la aplicación del arreglo matricial es de fácil comprensión y posibilita el trabajo cualitativo para la obtención del resultado esperado.

RESUMO Os métodos de previsão são atualmente utilizados para estimar a ocorrência de um resultado esperado, ou seja, oferecem a probabilidade de apresentação de uma qualidade ou processo. Contudo, a sua utilização é ainda insuficiente no contexto da cultura física, pelo que o fornecimento de um novo método e a sua metodologia de aplicação é importante como um processo de filtragem qualitativa. O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar as matrizes ATJ como instrumentos para prever a validade de um resultado científico na Cultura Física. Para o conseguir, foram utilizados métodos tais como: sondagem de opinião, entrevista não estruturada, analítico-sintético, indutivo-dedutivo, análise de fontes bibliográficas, sistémico-estrutural-funcional, critérios especializados e estatístico-matemático. Como resultado preliminar, obtém-se uma matriz com a designação ATJ, onde são declaradas quatro matrizes que respondem a dimensões; cada uma com os seus respectivos indicadores e escalas de avaliação que tornam possível obter um critério de avaliação final. O procedimento fornecido ao investigador para a aplicação da matriz é fácil de compreender e permite trabalhar qualitativamente para obter o resultado esperado.

ABSTRACT The methods of prognosis are currently used to estimate the occurrence of an expected result, ie, offer the probability of presentation of a quality or process, however, its use is still insufficient in the context of physical culture, so provide a new method and its application methodology, is important as a qualitative filtering process. The aim of this article is to present the ATJ matrices as tools for the prognosis of the validity of a scientific result in Physical Culture. To achieve it, methods such as: opinion poll, unstructured interview, analytical-synthetic, inductive-deductive, analysis of bibliographic sources, systemic-structural-functional, specialists' criteria and statistical-mathematical were used. As a preliminary result, it is possible to obtain a matrix arrangement called ATJ, where four matrices that respond to dimensions are declared; each one with its respective indicators and valuation scales that make it possible to obtain a final evaluation criterion. The procedure provided to the researcher for the application of the matrix arrangement is easy to understand and enables qualitative work to obtain the expected result.

Comparação das distâncias previstas e percorridas no incremental shuttle walking test em idosos comunitários / Comparación de las distancias predichas y recorridas en la incremental shuttle walking test en ancianos comunitarios / Comparison of predicted and covered distances in the incremental shuttle walking test in older adults

RESUMO O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a validade externa de três equações de referência para o cálculo da distância a ser percorrida no incremental shuttle walking test (ISWT) por idosos comunitários, e, por fim, identificar qual equação prediz melhor a distância nessa faixa etária. Foram selecionados 84 idosos cadastrados nas Unidades Básicas de Saúde de Diamantina, Minas Gerais. Os voluntários foram submetidos ao ISWT e a distância percorrida em metros até a interrupção do teste foi registrada e utilizada para comparação com as equações de predição. Os voluntários apresentaram média de idade de 73,15±5,89 anos e alguns comprometimentos de saúde comuns dessa faixa etária, sendo a maioria mulheres e praticantes de atividade física. A análise estatística demonstrou que houve interação entre os fatores, ou seja, existe diferença entre as distâncias obtidas pelo ISWT e as distâncias obtidas pelas equações. Houve diferença também nas comparações entre os sexos (p<0,05) e a Equação 1 apresentou maior força de correlação (p<0,0001; r=0,414) com a distância real percorrida em relação às outras equações. Portanto, este estudo demonstrou uma diferença na comparação das distâncias real e calculadas por três equações de predição do ISWT, sugerindo que as equações utilizadas podem superestimar a distância percorrida pelos idosos, e que entre essas a Equação 1 apresentou uma predição mais próxima da distância percorrida para a amostra de idosos avaliada.

RESUMEN El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar la validez externa de tres ecuaciones de referencia para calcular la distancia recorrida de la incremental shuttle walking test (ISWT) para ancianos comunitarios, así como identificar la ecuación que mejor predice la distancia en este grupo de edad. Se seleccionaron a 84 ancianos inscritos en las Unidades Básicas de Salud de Diamantina, Minas Gerais (Brasil). Se aplicaron a los voluntarios la ISWT, y la distancia recorrida en metros hasta la interrupción de la prueba se registró y se utilizó para comparar con las ecuaciones de predicción. Los voluntarios tenían un promedio de edad de 73,15±5,89 años y algunos problemas de salud habituales en este grupo de edad, de los cuales la mayoría fue mujeres y practicantes de actividad física. El análisis estadístico mostró que hubo una interacción entre los factores, es decir, existe una diferencia entre las distancias obtenidas por ISWT y las distancias obtenidas por las ecuaciones. También hubo una diferencia en las comparaciones entre los sexos (p<0,05), y la Ecuación 1 mostró una mayor fuerza de correlación (p<0,0001; r=0,414) con la distancia real recorrida en relación con las otras ecuaciones. Por lo tanto, este estudio demostró una diferencia en la comparación de las distancias reales y calculadas por tres ecuaciones de predicción de ISWT, lo que sugiere que las ecuaciones utilizadas pueden sobreestimar la distancia recorrida por los ancianos y que entre estas la Ecuación 1 presentó una predicción más cercana a la distancia recorrida por la muestra evaluada.

ABSTRACT Our study aimed to evaluate the external validity of three reference equations for estimating the distance to be covered in the incremental shuttle walking test (ISWT) by older adults and to identify which equation best predicts the distance for this age group. In total, 84 older adults registered in the Health Centers of Diamantina, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, were selected. The volunteers were subjected to the ISWT and the distance covered, in meters, until the interruption of the test was recorded and compared with the prediction equations. The volunteers had a mean age of 73.15±5.89 years and some health problems common to this age group, were mostly women, and physically active. Statistical analysis showed an interaction between the factors, that is, a difference between the distances covered the ISWT and the distances obtained by the equations. The analysis showed a difference between the men and women (p<0.05) and Equation 1 showed a greater correlation strength (p<0.0001; r=0.414) with the distance covered compared to the other equations. Therefore, our study showed a difference in the comparison of the distances covered and those estimated by three ISWT prediction equations, suggesting that the equations used may overestimate the distance covered by older adults, and that, Equation 1 showed a prediction closer to the distance covered by the older adults of the sample.

Value of machine learning and 18F-FDG PET/CT radiomics features in lung adenocarcinoma EGFR mutation subtypes prediction / 中华核医学与分子影像杂志

Objective:To explore the predictive values for mutation subtypes of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) in patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) based on machine learning and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT images. Methods:18F-FDG PET/CT images and pathological data of 238 patients with LUAD (126 patients (54 males, 72 females, median age 62 years) with EGFR mutation; 112 patients (68 males, 44 females, median age 61 years) with wild-type EGFR)) were retrospectively collected at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital between April 2016 and May 2020. Volumes of interest (VOI) of PET and CT images were delineated respectively and three-dimensional-based and two-dimensional-based radiomics features were extracted from VOIs. Three machine learning classifiers of K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM) and Adaboost were trained in training set with CT, PET and fusion PET/CT radiomics features respectively. Well trained classifiers were tested in test set. Each predictive model was evaluated by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results:A total of 126 patients were EGFR mutation including 3 patients with 18 exon mutation, 6 patients with 20 exon mutation, 42 patients with 19 exon mutation, and 75 patients with 21 exon mutation. Finally, patients with 18 exon mutation and 20 exon mutation were removed due to the scale was too small to be trained adequately by machine learning classifiers. Predictive performance of mean PET/CT feature-based model (Adaboost: area under curve (AUC)=0.87, 95% CI: 0.75-0.99) in EGFR mutation subtypes was better than PET feature-based model (Adaboost: AUC=0.64, 95% CI: 0.46-0.83; z=2.04, P<0.05) and CT feature-based model (Adaboost: AUC=0.64, 95% CI: 0.45-0.83; z=2.06, P<0.05). There was no statistical difference between predictive performance of mean PET/CT feature-based model (SVM: AUC=0.76, 95% CI: 0.56-0.96) and PET/CT concatenation feature-based model (SVM: AUC=0.75, 95% CI: 0.59-0.92; z=1.14, P>0.05). Conclusion:Machine learning and 18F-FDG PET/CT radiomics features can provide predictive value for EGFR mutation subtypes in patients with LUAD.

Construction of a forecast system for prediction of schistosomiasis risk in China based on the flood information / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To create a model based on meteorological data to predict the regions at risk of schistosomiasis during the flood season, so as to provide insights into the surveillance and forecast of schistosomiasis. Methods An interactive schistosomiasis forecast system was created using the open-access R software. The schistosomiasis risk index was used as a basic parameter, and the species distribution model of Oncomelania hupensis snails was generated according to the cumulative rainfall and temperature to predict the probability of O. hupensis snail distribution, so as to identify the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission during the flood season. Results The framework of the web page was built using the Shiny package in the R program, and an interactive and visualization system was successfully created to predict the distribution of O. hupensis snails, containing O. hupensis snail surveillance site database, meteorological and environmental data. In this system, the snail distribution area may be displayed and the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission may be predicted using the species distribution model. This predictive system may rapidly generate the schistosomiasis transmission risk map, which is simple and easy to perform. In addition, the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission were predicted to be concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the flood period. Conclusions A schistosomiasis forecast system is successfully created, which is accurate and rapid to utilize meteorological data to predict the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission during the flood period.

O impacto demográfico e seus diferenciais por sexo nos custos assistenciais da saúde suplementar no Brasil / The demographic impact and its differentials by gender on the health care costs of supplementary health in Brazil

Resumo Introdução As consequências do processo de Transição Demográfica afetam a demanda por saúde e, por conseguinte, o setor de saúde suplementar. Objetivo Examinar as consequências futuras do envelhecimento populacional e dos ganhos em longevidade, diferenciados por sexo, nos custos assistenciais das operadoras de planos de saúde. Para tanto, utilizaram-se os dados disponibilizados pela Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar (ANS) e pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Método Utilizou-se o modelo de padronização, entre 2016 e 2045, variando apenas a estrutura etária populacional. Resultados Os resultados indicam que o processo de envelhecimento populacional é mais acentuado para a população feminina e mais intenso entre os beneficiários dos planos individuais/familiares se comparados aos dos planos coletivos. As internações e os exames complementares permanecerão os mais onerosos entre os itens assistenciais. Em relação aos impactos da longevidade, constatou-se que os maiores gastos esperados de usuários com mais de 59 anos de idade até a morte são com as internações e entre as mulheres, nos planos individuais/familiares. Conclusão O envelhecimento populacional e aumento de longevidade, principalmente para mulheres, vão impactar os custos dos planos de saúde, com maior intensidade os individuais/familiares. A saúde suplementar precisa se preparar para os desafios demográficos impostos aos custos futuros, buscando políticas capazes de minimizá-los.

Abstract Background The consequences of the Demographic Transition process affect the demand for health, including the private health sector. Objective To examine the consequences of population aging and the longevity gains, gender differentials, in the healthcare costs of healthcare operators. Data from The National Regulatory Agency for Private Health Insurance and Plans (Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar (ANS)) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)) were used for this purpose. Method The standardization model has been used between 2016 and 2045, varying only the population age structure. Results The results indicate that the population aging process is more accentuated for the female population and more intense among the beneficiaries of individual/family plans compared to collective plans. The hospitalization and complementary examinations showed the highest absolute monetary values between care items, for both types of plans, in all years analyzed. The findings of the impacts of longevity, the expected costs for the users of the last age group will be higher for hospitalizations, especially among women and with individual / family plans. Conclusion Population aging and increased longevity, especially for women, will impact the costs of health plans, with greater intensity for individual / family members. Supplementary health needs to prepare for the demographic challenges imposed by future costs by pursuing policies that can minimize them.

Boletim COVID-PA: relatos sobre projeções baseadas em inteligência artificial no enfrentamento da pandemia de COVID-19 no estado do Pará / Boletín COVID-PA: informes de proyecciones basadas en inteligencia artificial para enfrentar la pandemia COVID-19 en el estado de Pará, Brasil / COVID-PA Bulletin: reports on artificial intelligence-based forecasting in coping with COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Pará, Brazil

Objetivo: Relatar o produto de pesquisa e extensão universitária denominado Boletim COVID-PA, que apresentou projeções sobre o comportamento da pandemia no estado do Pará, Brasil. Métodos: Utilizou-se da técnica de inteligência artificial conhecida como 'redes neurais artificiais', para geração de 13 boletins com projeções de curto prazo baseadas nos dados históricos do sistema da Secretaria de Estado de Saúde Pública. Resultados: Após oito meses de projeções, a técnica gerou resultados confiáveis, com precisão média de 97% (147 dias observados) para casos confirmados, 96% (161 dias observados) para óbitos e 86% (72 dias observados) para ocupação de leitos de unidade de terapia intensiva. Conclusão: Esses boletins tornaram-se um instrumento útil para a tomada de decisão de gestores públicos, auxiliando na realocação de recursos hospitalares e otimização das estratégias de controle da COVID-19 nas diversas regiões do estado do Pará.

Objetivo: Reporte el resultado de la investigación y extensión universitaria denominada 'Boletim COVID-PA' que presentó proyecciones sobre el comportamiento de la pandemia en el estado de Pará, con un enfoque práctico y computacionalmente eficiente. Métodos: Fue utilizada una técnica de inteligencia artificial denominadas Redes Neurales para generar trece boletines con proyecciones basado en datos históricos del sistema de la Secretaría de Salud Pública. Resultados: Después de ocho meses de previsiones, la técnica genero resultados confiables con una precisión promedio de 97% (147 días observados) para casos confirmados, 96% (161 días observados) para los fallecimientos y 86% (72 días observados) para la ocupación de camas en las unidades de cuidados intensivos. Conclusión: Estos boletines se convirtieron en una herramienta para la toma de decisiones, auxiliando en la redistribución de recursos en los hospitales en el estado de Pará.

Objective: To report the university extension research result entitled 'The COVID-PA Bulletin', which presented forecasts on the behavior of the pandemic in the state of Pará, Brazil. Methods: The artificial intelligence technique also known as 'artificial neural networks' was used to generate 13 bulletins with short-term forecasts based on historical data from the State Department of Public Health information system. Results: After eight months of predictions, the technique generated reliable results, with an average accuracy of 97% (observed for147 days) for confirmed cases, 96% (observed for 161 days) for deaths and 86% (observed for 72 days) for Intensive Care Unit bed occupancy. Conclusion: These bulletins have become a useful decision-making tool for public managers, assisting in the reallocation of hospital resources and optimization of COVID-19 control strategies in various regions of the state of Pará.

Chorioamnionitis at the Befelatanana university hospital centre of obstetric gynecology in Antananarivo Madagascar: epidemiology, taken care and forecast

Background: The chorioamnionitis corresponds to an infection of the ovular cavity. She puts game neonatal and maternal forecast. This study had as objectives to describe the epidemiological aspects, the taking care and the forecast of the chorioamnionitis to the gynecology teaching hospital and obstetrics Befelatanana, Madagascar.Methods: It is about a descriptive, retrospective and transverse study, during a period of 6 months going from January, 2016 till July 2016. The pregnant women introducing a premature break of membranes (RPM) complicated with chorioamnionitis hospitalized in CHU-GOB during this period had been included.Results: Authors found 35 cases of chorioamnionitis, that is 38.1% premature breaks of membranes. The medium age of the patients was 20±5, 16 years old (extreme from 17 to 36 years). Primiparous was found in 82.9%. The chorioamnionitis had happened in 68.5% cases after 37 weeks of amenorrhea. The delay between RPM and happened of chorioamnionitis was of 6 hours. The picture of chorioamnionitis was complete in 54.3%. Delivery was by low way in 33.3%. Authors had found 88.60% case of endometritis, 8.6% case of parietal suppuration post caesarian section but without any maternal decease. Neonatal complications were marked by a score of Apgar <7 - five minutes in 74.3%, neonatal infection in 25.7% and precocious neonatal decease in 11.4%.Conclusions: The chorioamniotite concerned primiparous especially young urgent. The application of the protocol of taking care of the premature break of membranes is necessary for the reduction of the happening of the chorioamniotitis.